Brexit deal revealed

Welcome to the world of tomorrow!

 

Life is always full of surprises and in this brave new world people are wondering what deal the UK will get with the EU now that we are leaving. Well I have to look at the deal the UK will be able to achieve.

Where to start? well lets look at the areas that need to be addressed.

  1. Immigration control – as more people net come to the UK from outside the EU than from the EU we know that the UK government does not want to reduce the number of people coming here. The people and therefore now the government want to be able to exercise control. The EU are adamant that access to the market will come with freedom of movement.
  2. Freedom of access to the single market – the UK wants to come to a deal that provides as close as possible the same access that exists now.
  3. Financial services passporting – this is a major item for the UK as failure to get this could have a major impact on the financial services sector within the UK.
  4. The never ending stream of EU legislation – new EU rules on literally everything affecting everyone and every businesss no matter the size within the UK.
  5. The ‘crazy’ decisions made by the ECHR – The european courts supremacy over the national court.
  6. The cash cost of access – the £350 million each week, that was never £350 million.

So what would a deal look like?

Well firstly, the European court is nothing to do with the membership of the EU and as such is nothing to do with the  referendum and anyone who thought it was was mistaken. There have been moves to curb the court due to its constant creeping beyond its mandate, but again that is not part of the EU so I will end this point here and return to the deal that the UK will be able to achieve.

Secondly, the UK is the fifth largest economy in the world and as such it is in everyones interest to get a good deal all around. It is more important for the UK than the EU in the short term though, longer term it remains to be seen how UK trade will grow.

So, now for the over view of the deal. Some may be surprised to hear that I believe that the UK will achieve full access to the single market and not have to accept freedom of movement, meaning that all immigration will be on a points based system. I believe that the UK will withdraw from the Fisheries and Agricultural policies. The access to the market will include financial services passporting.

How will the UK get this amazing result?

Firstly, money contributed to the EU will be significant perhaps in the region of £200 million per week. On the surface this sounds like not too bad in the context of the £350 million figure, then think about the absense of EU money spent on projects within the UK and the rebate so financially we would be worse off, but the amount in the scheme of things is trivial.

Then onto the no freedom of movement, the points system will be lets say a fudge. Basically, if you are an EU citizen with no criminal record you will probably acculumate enough points with no further effort. Bear in mind that we were under EU treaties allowed to deny entry to EU citizens deemed to be negative to society, such as those with criminal records. We chose not to employ border staff to control the EU migrants and once they are here it is not so easy.

We will of course absorb pretty much all existing EU legislation directly into UK law and any future EU legislation will also be absorbed, there will be agreed parameters to restrict this to areas that affect the single market limiting the workers rights for example. In reality we would probably implement pretty much everything, however everything would be framed for the UK as opposed to now where it is implemented in a one size fits all approach.

So, at least withdrawing from the common fisheries policy will mean that the UK fishing industry will be reinvigorated. Except of course there will still be quotas which will have to be negotiated with the EU due to fish not caring about crossing national maritime borders. Also, the UK government will likely continue to hand out the quota to large operators like they do now. They will also not continue to not require them to land the catch within the UK. The reality is that there will be no real change in the industry. The government could have within the EU given most of the quota to smaller vessels more likely to land the fish at there home port, but that would be more to monitor and there fore more cost.

The deal we will get from the EU will basically cost us a little more than we pay now and remove our influence over the rules we will ‘choose’ to implement. The biggest thing we will gain will be the ability to negotiate trade deals outside the EU, how successful we will be and what exactly that will be the outcome only time will tell. We will of course be successful, but I cannot help but feel we could have got the one true gain whilst staying in the EU. The EU is at a point where it has to change, would the change have been faster and in a better direction if we had stayed? again time will tell, hopefully the EU will still want our input so that we can influence things for our and everyone elses benefit.

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